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CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 5:00am EST
less this season including hurricane sandy and concerns about how tax hikes from the fiscal cliff could impact their wallets. joining us for more on the numbers is michael mcnamara of mastercard advisers. great to have you with us. many analysts, retailers had high hopes for the season. i think it's looking weaker than expected. of course we had hurricane sandy and we're dealing with the fiscal cliff, as well. what do you think the big driver was of these slower growth numbers? >> well, good morning. yes, you hit on two of the big ones. really the season tripped coming out of the starting gate with hurricane sandy. the impact in the northeast and mid-atlantic, both those regions of the country actually had negative holiday seasons for the holiday-related sectors that we track. other areas of the country that were not impacted by significant weather in the southeast, south central, mountain and west, were up 2% to 4% year over year. so really depended on where you were in the country, how but during the holiday season. >> okay. that's definitely interesting to look at, the regional
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 9:00am EST
fiscal cliff? was it sandy? was it some sentiment that came out of the newtown tragedy? it's hard to say. >> but it may be a combination of all of those. we got a sense from the guests we brought on earlier this week, on monday, that it was not a great holiday selling season, as we ended the last day before christmas. and all those may be the reasons, carl. i'm positive i didn't think people really understood the fiscal cliff. i may have been wrong. perhaps it was something that weighed on people's minds. the weather always at issue. it could actually have been warmer weather as well that contributed. we've had some analysts say that because people don't feel they have to go out and buy a coat. >> because it will never get cold again. >> except today, when it's 28 degrees. we'll see how after christmas does. internet also, it doesn't appear as online sales are up as p as anticipated. and perhaps they made up for the loss of the brick and mortar. >> you were pointing out before the show, luxury was not immune to this. you would think it would be more in tune to the consequences a clif
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 12:00pm EST
you have to take into account there's sandy, the tragedy up in newtown. a lot of different things. in front of us is the fiscal cliff. everybody has been talking about it. we've been talking about it. here we are past christmas getting very close to the 31st and still nothing resolved. for those reasons i think people are holding off. they're going to make some decisions later on. maybe those decisions don't happen until january. >> joe, you can blame what you want. you can say it's hurricane sandy, the fiscal cliff, discretionary the second best performing sector in the s&p here to date. is this a sign to start taking money off the table if you have it in the retailers? >> i think you categorize it by saying it's sprung a little bit of a leak. year to date, they've been strong. what do the allocations do? clearly you've looked at the u.s. economy and you've said it's been the services over the goods. money managers are taking a look at the potential recovery in manufacturing. they're looking at softening and consumer discretionary. it is on the back of sandy. it's moving into the
CNBC
Dec 21, 2012 7:00pm EST
will be more scrutiny on violent video games in the coming days and weeks after that tragedy at sandy hook, elementary school. >> many thanks, appreciate it. >>> here now to talk to us dan greenhaus, you are, if i understand it, a fiscal cliff stock bear. >> yes. give or take, yes. >> and why? >> well, i think it's pretty clear you're talking about -- well, our best case scenario has been we're going off the cliff. we said that the day after the election, we standby it today. if you do that, you're talking about the largest tax increase in our country's history, a considerable amount of spending cuts, and in the short-term, probably hit the stock prices on the order of 10%. >> if i give you a cliff deal. okay. i'm going to give you a cliff deal for middle class extensions, 250,000, you're right the top rates will go up. but if you get that deal in january, that does save us from the recession scenario, the really deep gloom scenario. >> this is the big debate. our view has been if you get a deal fairly quickly in the new year, it's hardly the end of the world. the question really or t
CNBC
Dec 24, 2012 9:00am EST
no question, especially from sandy, at the beginning of november, there was a lot to make up as we got throughout the course of november. but black friday came back nicely. we actually think that it's more going to affect some of the lower income consumers as you look back at the consumer confidence numbers than the higher end special names. we think it will hold it pretty well throughout the season. >> speaking of high end specialty names, you do favor coors and lululemon, those are some of the highest retailers out there. what do you see coors doing right? what sorts of sales numbers do they need to see this season to justify the valuation? >> they're at about 27 times. which given the kind of growth rate they've seen, i don't think it's all that expensive. the same-store sales were 25% last quarter. don't see that slowing even though we have modeled in a slowdown from that. not just at their retail stores, where they have a lot of room to open more stores. at the wholesale accounts, the big department stores, they're seeing incredible sales increases. they're putting in these sh
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 2:00pm EST
survey includes the week of hurricane sandy which was the last week of october. some of these companies don't. secondly, the survey excludes nonholiday related categories, excludes food, excludes gas, excludes building materials. well, that's a very important piece of information. that may make up for the difference. mastercard's spokesman also told me, here's a quote, put the quote up, it is possible that total retail sales, that includes all the nondiscretionary sectors, could be up north of 3%. the broader view is up 4.5% in november. now, this makes some sense. their estimates including all of the sectors, not just some of them, is closer to the national retail federation number and i think that accounts for why the differences between the surveys are so large. >> the light bulb goes on. thank you very much. go and rest that voice of yours. >>> we will check more on the retail situation later on in the show. in the meantime, rick santelli, how are things in the bond pits? >> you know, bob pisani sounds like a futures trader today. we hope he feels better. but the futures t
CNBC
Dec 28, 2012 7:00pm EST
communities slammed by super storm sandy. that vote was 61 for, 33 against. sandy road ashore devastating several areas and the senate rejected a republican amendment to cut the immediate cost to just 23 million clearing the way for final action on the $60 billion bill. the bill now goes to the house where its passage is uncertain because of the non-sandy-related spending items that are in the bill. typical sausage making for washington. >>> let's get to our panel. here now is blake zeff, former obama campaign aide and washington editor. robert, have you heard anything in the last couple of hours that suggests to you that somehow by monday mitch mcconnell and harry reid will sing kumbaya, pass something in the senate that also passes the house? >> i'm not so sure they'll be sing kumbaya, but the real story today is that there's movement on capitol hill. reid and mcconnell come out of that white house meeting and they're ready to haggle over some differences. what i expect to come to the floor is what president obama's talking about a 250 threshold for rates, maybe an amt attac
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 9:00am EST
real functioning economy of this country. we are going to be stuck again. we went through sandy, that was a natural disaster, to think that all this really is man made, still boggles the mind. >> sickening. especially with claims back to 350, decent number this morning. >> there is a little bit of interpretation to that. to think that the government, federal government certainly was closed on monday and tuesday, some of the state government was closed for both days, one of those days as well, saying maybe it came in a little bit light. some interpretation but funny to see all the headlines crossing this morning saying the futures were moving based on claims or the treasuries based on claims numbers and not what was going on on the fiscal cliff. >> a crummy start to the year we get a fourth strike on top of all that, true. >> not such a crummy year for japan. japanese stocks rallying you can the yen continuing its slide against the dollar in all the major currencies, in fact. asian markets mixed overnight trading. the nikkei climbing to a closing level not seen since just before the ma
CNBC
Dec 24, 2012 5:00am EST
weighing on their minds. and the continued after of courses of hurricane sandy, plus the dampened mood cast over the country by the recent school shootings in connecticut. >> what's on today's agenda for you to follow in the united states? there's no economic earnings starting to speak of on this christmas eve. the markets will be closing early with the nyse closing at 1:00 p.m. even, the cme at 1:15, nymex at 1:30 and the cme global index closes at 1:45 eastern so basically they can go shopping. now, u.s. markets were higher last week despite friday's lack of a deal on the fiscal cliff. the nax das was up by 1.7% and the s&p 500 by 1.2%. that may have been the santa claus rally. we're joined now by ben lichtenste lichtenstein. ben, if we look at futures this morning, looking negative. it doesn't look as though santa is going to visit on christmas eve. >> well, we have seen a significant santa rally. if you look at the lower levels we were trading at earlier. if you remember, we sold off with conviction to the downside in the s&p as we tested that 1340 level. recently, a strong rally o
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 4:00pm EST
a bill introduced by the ranking member of the ways and means committee in the house, sandy levin, that called for this legislation. the speaker was going to bring it up to kill it, but he couldn't kill it and then we moved to plan "b," the debacle of all debacles. it's the mother of all debacles. that was brought up in an effort to send us something. he couldn't even pass it among the republicans it was so absurd, he meaning the speaker, so it's very clear now, mr. president, that the speakers's number one goal is to get elected speaker on january 3rd. the house is not even here. he's told me it will give him two days to get back here, not two days, 48 hours. they don't even have enough of the leadership here to meet to talk about it. they have done it with conference calls. people are spread all over the country because the speaker is basically waiting for january aboutrd. now, the president campaigned on raising taxes on people making more than $250,000 a year. the bush era tax cuts will expire at the end of this year. obama was elected with a surplus of about 3 million votes.
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 4:00pm EST
stock and consumers are concerned about everything from hurricane sandy and the senseless slaughters in sandy hook, connecticut, spending less and giving more to charities. >> jan, i don't want to minimize any of this, the damage that this storm has already inflicted in parts of the country and could still inflict, but we were in an environment where people were just not shopping to begin with. do you think retailers could use this as a good excuse going forward? >> yeah, bert's here with me the four horsemen and apocalypse. i have to agree with him and there's really not a lot of time left. today was going to be a very, very big day, bases where it's not being snow affected. i think you'll see a strong performance. i know i was tough, the biggest deal. the fiscal cliff killed us. retailers went deep on profession and they said, no. i thrill city nyse's will be bert. >> do you think it's getting better in 2013, bert? >> 2013 starts the retail ice age and maybe the 500 to 1,000-day retail recession. shopping centers, malls-based, starting to refinance some of them will create record vak
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 12:00pm EST
had holiday sales coming at the worst level since 2008. that's not good. it's not all on sandy. >> depends how you read that metric. when the story is finally told, not .7%, somewhere higher than that. m moo. >> maybe it will. it's not all sandy, people cutting back already, whether military families cutting back dramatically because of sequestration or people who work at defense contractors out of jobs. there's a lot of bad heading our way. to josh's point, people will still send their kids to school and still go shopping but everybody is going to cut back how they shop. they will be trading down, judge, i think. and these idiots from harry reid to the president on top and john boehner included, i'm equal opportunity, it's horrible. >> we heard the same thing at the end of 2011 europe would spill to theist and the u.s. consumer was changing their habits. i'd like to point out the discretionary consumer is the second best in the market this year, 21%. any whoever made a bet against the u.s. consumer -- >> what kind of pullback are we talking about? if you guys like the market t
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 3:00pm EST
, the tragedy in connecticut, sandy, fiscal cliff, everything. with that in mind where do you see consumer spending, consumer discretionary spending next year? >> i think in 2013 there's always a place that excels in consumer discretionary and it's based on product, price and where they can expand in terms of channel extension. in 2013 i think we'll see names like nordstrom where they are accelerating the rate of growth. i think we'll see urban outfitters continue their turnaround, perhaps in an accelerated pace in 2013, and i think you're going to continue to see, particularly in the first half of the year, the demand for products from michael kors do well. second half of the year is a different story and perhaps the turnaround of tiffany's to be the name for the second half. >> meantime, r.j., i think you would agree retail remembers scrambling right now because consumer confidence is plunging. three reports in a row that have been pretty dismal. >> yeah, i would agree. i think we're looking for a bit of a pullback in 2013, not only due to the fiscal cliff issues that will becom
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 5:00pm EST
european debt crisis, we've had, you know, we've had the elections, we've had super storm sandy, we've had so many events, fiscal clifr, of course, being rerated by s&p. >> but the number one thing we're not talking about is the fed. you have this unbelievable accommodating monetary policy and a signal from the fed they're going to continue that to the tune of a trillion dollars a year. so, that's why the things has been conventional. this has been anything but a conventional year. if you didn't have that level of stimulus, i think the market would have gone a little sideways this year. >> right. let's talk about the big trades in today's session, from trash to treasure. can some of 2012's biggest losers be the best bets for 2013. this is, in fact, what we saw in today's session. these are some of the worst performers of the year, but in today's market, today's session, they actually led the markets. research in motion was a head scratcher of a move. >> the research in motion is very interesting, because i thought the move was over last week when it had that, seemed to be a blow
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 6:00am EST
increasing. we saw consumer confidence being up. all of a sudden then, we had the impacts of sandy, a tragedy up in newtown, connecticut, and just a lot of other factors that just put a damper on the season. >> so, it is fair to say that it started better than it ended now. >> it started better than it ended. there was a lot of excitement around black friday. i mean it was almost like the super bowl. they have all this advertising, drag people out, it's the biggest event of the year come shopping, and then week after that we had the pro bowl. there was no excitement. there was no reason to come out shopping. so big bang, but it kind of waned as we went into the season. >> how much of the season is in the books now? i mean, what's still left to happen? >> there's a couple of big days still coming. i think this weekend is a big weekend as people redeem gift cards, go into the stores, exchange items for what they're looking for. hopefully get that add-on sale and people start to take advantage of the clearance sale, i would say, though, 95% of it is in the books. we've probably got some
CNBC
Dec 28, 2012 9:00am EST
got a bump from sandy. so if we could just fix that up, i think we'll be okay. >> what do you think is the market reaction if we come, you know, in on monday, and there's some sort of a mini deal? what does that do to us? >> listen, i think we'll be okay here. the first and second quarter of next year are going to be okay, cliff or not. they're going to get something together. it may be sort of a sloppy deal, just, you know, a small deal, that lead us into more negotiations -- >> but is the event a mini deal or is the mini deal a grand bargain? >> they'll come up with a mini deal. it's taken them this long to get here. how can we anticipate they'll get significant done. they'll get some sort of stopgap measure done and we'll see a little bit of stability. stop seeing all the negativity that's surrounding us. we're dead red here. >> gordon, if you recall that 2008 period, the market was going 400, 500, 600, a 60-point drop in the heat of the crisis. why is the equity market being relatively stable to that comparison? it seems that stakes here are pretty big, but the equity market is rel
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 2:00pm EST
sales. 400,000 cars that were damaged over a period of time in the storms. 250,000 superstorm sandy here. 40,000 pounds of copper go into a car. housing has turned up a little bit. you have 400 pounds of copper in every new home at least, not even the commercial buildings. >> george -- >> that could being. >> -- would you say that gold is no longer a good safe haven? to me it's been acting like a risk asset and not a safe haven anymore. >> people don't understand what is meant by safe haven for gold. the gold prices is an economic and political barometer not of just the economy but political well-being of the world. there's another saber-rattling. korea firing rockets. you have problems in the middle east. you have major problems that we haven't seen lately because of fiscal cliff and the headlines from italy and spain and of course portugal and greece is not finished yet. >> right. >> so there's plenty of problems. we're going to return back to basics after the fiscal cliff. people will say, you know what, i do need some place to put my money. >> probably not in the backyard or und
CNBC
Dec 24, 2012 12:00pm EST
prior years? >> i think this season is so different because of superstorm sandy. so what we saw right after thanks giving is a snap back. we have seen solid demand as we get closer to christmas and new year's. there's no doubt on the back side of the events in late october with super storm. it was a slow demand period for jetblue and for the industry in the northeast. >> it has been a difficult few weeks for jet travel because of the weather. are operations back it normal at this point? have you been able to make up the lost time o or no, not yet? >> absolutely. operations are back to normal. we are operating a record level of flight activity. right in the mid 85% load factors. we have seen a nice rebound on the back side of the storm. >> what are bookings looking like going forward? how are you expecting the first half it play out? >> visibility is a little bit after question mark as we move into the future. we are cautiously optimistic. let's face it, a lot has to do with what happens in washington. decisions. it really is. it is not like we didn't see this coming. >> they had
CNBC
Dec 24, 2012 6:00am EST
season than expected. you think you had the long calendar, the hurricane sandy, the track dpi in connecticut, people had a lot on their minds this season. this weekend was a key weekend. i think it helped. i didn't see promotions being extra promotional. but it's a push till the end. >> okay, so winners and losers? >> i think some of the winners, i think you're going to see companies like tjx, macy's. i think american eagle outfitters, even gap had a very good season, along with michael kors. >> losers? >> i think you had a tough time at jcpenney. i think the traffic was tough there all the time. i think kohl's had to be extra promotional in order to be able to drive the sales. and the whole children's sector was very promotional. from gymboree to children's place. >> so, dana, jason trennert from strat eegous. how are you doing? >> good, how are you, jason? >> good. normally retail stocks outperform in january, because i think that phenomenon that andrew was talking about is that there's a general sense that christmas gifts canceled at a certain point and then it comes back at t
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 6:00am EST
sales to grow 3% to 4%. among the reasons cited for the weaker numbers, superstorm sandy and consumer nervousness about tax hikes due to the fiscal cliff. we've had lots of conversation about whether not fiscal cliff would impact consumer sentiment. and apparently now it's actually hitting people in the wallet. let's talk about what's on the economic agenda today. one very important report to watch, standard and poor's releasing the case schiller index on october home sales at 9:00 eastern. it's a busy week for housing data. tomorrow we're going to be getting the commerce department which releases new home sales for november. then on friday, the national association of realtors, not realtors -- >> yeah. >> releases its spending. its pending home sales index for november. >> in other housing news, the obama administration is considering expanding its mortgage refinancing program to include borrowers whose mortgages are not backed by the government and who owe more than their homes are worth. "the journal" reports one proposal being considered would also transfer potentially ri
Search Results 0 to 19 of about 20